War on Gaza: What will happen after the bombs fall silent?
The Gaza war will end, as all wars eventually do. But its repercussions and consequences will be unique, both in terms of their nature and depth.
Regardless of whether a ceasefire is imminent or how much longer the war drags on, the contours of its conclusion are already taking shape, with the image of its aftermath becoming clear.
The majority of Gaza has been destroyed to the point of being uninhabitable. Tens of thousands of people have been killed, and many more have been maimed.
The people of Gaza must endure life in the ruins of their homes, facing exposure, cold and starvation. Prolonging the war will certainly exacerbate their suffering, but it will not significantly alter the conflict’s overall trajectory.
Politically, the immediate outcomes will include Israel’s weakening of Hamas militarily, which could force the group to change its strategies. Hamas could ultimately lose control of Gaza, and it will take years to rebuild its organisational structure.
But this is not the whole story. Regardless of the decimation of Gaza, Israel cannot bypass the Palestinian issue as a central driver of the Middle East’s political landscape.
This war has undeniably reaffirmed that the Palestinian cause cannot be overlooked through security measures, nor through Arab normalisation with Israel. Yasser Arafat, the former Palestinian president, famously noted that there could be no security or peace without Palestinians achieving their national rights; this remains the equation today.
New methods of resistance
Alongside its battle against Hamas, Israel has fought for more than a year to displace the Palestinian people from Gaza - but it has failed in that goal. Targeting hospitals, schools, universities, homes, water supplies, medical staff and journalists, Israel has fought against the very means of life in Gaza. But to this day, the Palestinian people are still there.
This is an ideological, strategic and moral failure on the part of Israel. The right-wing religious and nationalist Zionist project has failed to transform Gaza into “a land without a people”.
This failure resonates in the occupied West Bank and beyond. While Israel might have considered Gaza a testing ground for its policies, there are serious doubts that such an opportunity could arise in the West Bank. Even if it did, it would almost certainly fail.
The failure of Israel’s plan to push Palestinians out of Gaza, despite the massive costs incurred, means that Israel will no longer be able to avoid confronting the Palestinian reality politically.
Palestinians, too, will draw their own conclusions after the war. They have witnessed the futility of negotiations, which have allowed time for further Israeli settlement expansion and land theft. They have also seen how reckless acts of resistance laid the foundation for an unprecedented, genocidal war.
This has pushed many Palestinians to consider alternative means of resistance. History shows that when all roads appear to be closed, Palestinians still find a path forward. After being pushed out of Lebanon in 1982, for example, they pioneered the intifada as an unprecedented form of struggle.
Today, as doors close, Palestinians will find a new, innovative path, which could take the form of “positive steadfastness” - focused on perseverance and survival in their homeland.
This approach is broad, encompassing multiple tools of resistance, and it has the potential to mobilise all the energies of the Palestinian people. It is resilient against devastating confrontations, and it surpasses the futility of endless negotiations.
While this model has not yet fully taken shape, there are Palestinian voices calling to explore its potential.
Vested interests
As for the region, those powers with vested interests can no longer tolerate the impacts of this irrational conflict, which threatens them directly.
Iran has lost its axis of influence. The US has lost its dominance over the Red Sea. Russia has seen its bases in Syria destabilised. The Gulf states are under both calculated and unforeseen pressures. The repercussions of this war have unleashed massive risks and changes.
For this reason, a political solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has become an international necessity, despite differing and conflicting interests. While this process will take time, allowing the political leaderships on both sides to mature, the trajectory will be irreversible, even if progress is slow.
In the immediate aftermath of the Gaza war, Israeli “successes” in Syria or Lebanon may dominate the scene. But in the Middle East, where the only constant is change, the tide could quickly turn, just as it did in the aftermath of the 1982 war.
While the current situation is undoubtedly more complex, there are many unknowns, including the longer-term social and psychological repercussions on the Palestinian people. The fall of the Assad regime in Syria has created additional uncertainties, and it remains unclear how the Gaza conflict will reverberate in Egypt and Jordan in the years ahead.
These questions have no clear answers and profound implications for the region’s future. But one thing is certain: the era following 7 October 2023 will not be the same as the one that came before.
Shifting opinion
Once the dust of war settles, the broader shifts in public opinion across Europe and the US will begin to manifest politically. Anyone betting on time to restore Israel’s image as a victim or a democratic oasis will undoubtedly lose. The scale of the genocide is too immense. Marking a generational shift, supporting Israel will become a moral stain on politicians.
This change is not far off, and it will have consequences on Israeli policies. While Israel does not prioritise global public opinion and focuses solely on American support, the US has to care about global opinion, because it values its influence around the world. For this reason, it must account for global positions - not out of moral considerations, but due to its strategic interests.
In the meantime, when it comes to the Palestinian people, the outcomes of this war - all the pain, suffering, death and brutality - will be immeasurable. With the world abandoning them to Israel’s policies of genocide, torture and starvation, the Palestinian mindset will have shifted.
What will this produce, and how will it impact Palestinian political structures? These are questions that even experts in psychology and political sociology will struggle to answer.
Will the devastation spur Palestinians to resign to the servitude of occupation, or will it fuel an unrelenting quest for vengeance? Will time erase the bitterness of genocide and starvation? It’s far too early to guess.
When the war is over, Israel might have achieved the appearance of a victory - but from a strategic standpoint, it will not have triumphed.
The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye.